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2024 ElectionJuly 12, 2024
Can Trump put DEEP blue states into play? According to CNN's polling guru: "Absolutely"
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How bad are things going for Joe Biden? People are saying New York could be in play bad. No "big boy" press conference is going to fix that. CNN polling guru and harvester or Democrat sorrow Harry Eten looked at recent blue state polls and says that "absolutely" Trump can put reliable blue states in play.
As the numbers show, states like New York and Virginia were trending Trump BEFORE the debate debacle.
‘Who Would Have Ever Thought?': CNN's Harry Enten Says He 'Absolutely' Thinks Trump Can Put Blue States 'Into Play' pic.twitter.com/2FKQYLQtPr
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) July 11, 2024
“I’ll give you two examples because this is pre-debate polling from 2024. And look at these 2020 results. New York. This is a blue state … Joe Biden won that state by 23 points. Look at this polling, though, that came out pre-debate. It was Biden just by eight points. I wouldn’t be surprised if that state is even closer now.”
Forgive me for being that guy, but New York will never be in play. As long as there are millions and millions of low-information progressives living on top of each other in Manhattan and Brooklyn, New York will electorally go to the Democrats. Now, if we're going congressional district by congressional district? Different story. Long Island and the Hudson Valley, demographically, are no different than the suburbs of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin that you need to win.
But the thing about New York is that while Biden won't lose the state, he might have to spend resources in the most expensive media market in the country to ensure that he keeps it. Money spent in New York is money not being spent in 3-5 swing states combined. Same as if Biden has to spend money in Minnesota, a state so leftist it's the one state Ronald Reagan DIDN'T win.
Or how about in Virginia, right? A state that Joe Biden easily won last time around by ten points. Pre-debate, pre-debate, the race there was tied. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some post-debate polling that actually has Joe Biden behind in Virginia.
Virginia is a different story, because Virginia used to be a swing state fairly recently. And suddenly, there is chirping about Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin joining Trump's VP shortlist as there is also talk of Trump's Campaign adjusting strategies post-debate now that they see huge swaths of the middle up for grabs.
However, the easy money is still on Ohio Senator JD Vance.
Among other qualities, @JDVance1 is young and closer to the problems of young people, and he's like a lot of voters Trump is going to need to drive to the polls. | @michaelbd https://t.co/4pFUTrmCbt
— National Review (@NRO) July 12, 2024
Messaging for next week's GOP convention will be very interesting. As for Joe Biden, he has a prime-time interview on NBC News that will no doubt go as well as his "big boy" press conference did. He'll do just well enough to stick around while still reminding everyone why they want Trump.
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