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Today was the last live show before the election livestream of the century and Louder with Crowder broke down the extremely close national polls.

The polls are as tight as possible, including nationally and in battleground states. Trump is within the margin of error in all the battleground states, which is different from being outside in 2016 and 2020.

“At the worst, he performs right on track with these polls. He usually outperforms it anywhere from 2 to 4 points,” Crowder said. “Over the last month, every swing state has trended towards Republicans.”

Trump only needs one of the Rust Belt states while Kamala needs all to win if nothing majorly changes.

In Arizona, the RCP average has Trump up by 1.5 points. In 2020, it was a tie. In 2016, Clinton was up 1.5.

“Trump has consistently outperformed the polling and for the first time he is ahead in the pre-election poll,” Crowder said. “If Trump wins Arizona, his chances of winning the election go up 73%.”

Additionally, the Dems are slightly worried based on early voting because they are not doing as well as they usually would.

If Trump wins Georgia, “his chances of winning the election go up by 72%,” Crowder said.

“I am more concerned about North Carolina than Georgia,” Crowder added. “In North Carolina, Trump has out-performed the polling by 4.2% in the last elections.”

On average, Trump has also outperformed polling in Pennsylvania by 4.6%.

So while the polls show the two are neck-in-neck, betting odds overwhelmingly favor Trump, as he currently has a 62.18% chance of winning while Kamala has 37.82%. Only one swing state is considered a toss-up based on betting odds and Trump has continued to improve.

"Trump voters are more concerned with people becoming compliant, which means they are more likely to lie to pollsters," Crowder said.